Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift of Stance and Closed Issues
In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts
However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018
All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk & A Wise Memory
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be prudent of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
