Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
