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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However the latest field is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still